This year is poised to witness a record surge in global carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels, intensifying the impact of climate change and contributing to more severe extreme weather events, according to scientists. The Global Carbon Budget report, released on Tuesday during the COP28 climate summit, indicated that while overall CO2 emissions, which peaked last year, have stabilized in 2023 due to a slight reduction in activities such as deforestation, emissions from fossil fuels are still on track to reach 36.8 billion metric tons, representing a 1.1% increase from the previous year. The report, compiled by scientists from over 90 institutions, including the University of Exeter, projected a total of 40.9 billion tons of global CO2 emissions when land use emissions are factored in. This emissions trajectory for the year is moving the world further away from the goal of preventing global warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the University of Exeter, who led the research, expressed concern about surpassing the 1.5C target set by the Paris Agreement in 2015. He stated that achieving this goal now seems inevitable, emphasizing the need for rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions. Leaders convening at COP28 must make swift decisions to maintain the viability of the 2C warming target. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized the necessity of a 43% reduction in global emissions by 2030 to adhere to the 1.5C limit. Contrary to this, emissions have increased in recent years, with a temporary dip during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, emissions have rebounded and are currently 1.4% higher than pre-COVID levels. A recent analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) suggested that China, responsible for 31% of global fossil fuel CO2 emissions, could experience a "structural decline" in emissions starting as early as next year due to a surge in renewable energy installations. While the report identified positive developments, such as emissions reduction in the U.S. and European Union, primarily driven by the retirement of coal plants, only 26 countries, representing 28% of global emissions, are currently on a downward trend, predominantly in Europe.
