On Wednesday, the United Nations and researchers revealed that global fossil fuel production in 2030 is anticipated to surpass twice the level considered consistent with achieving the climate objectives outlined in the 2015 Paris climate agreement. The report by the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP) evaluates the disparity in reductions in fossil fuel production and the necessary measures to align with climate goals. This announcement precedes the commencement of the global COP 28 climate meeting scheduled to start on November 30 in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), a nation abundant in oil resources. Ploy Achakulwisut, a scientist from the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) and a lead author of the report, emphasized the critical nature of the fossil fuel phase-out in the upcoming negotiations at COP 28. She stated during a press briefing, "We need countries to commit to a phase-out of all fossil fuels to keep the 1.5℃ goal alive." According to the Paris Agreement, nations have committed to the long-term objective of restraining average temperature increases to less than 2℃ above pre-industrial levels, with an additional aspiration to limit them even further to 1.5℃. Although scientists underscore the necessity of reducing fossil fuel use to achieve this goal, there has been a lack of international consensus on specific phase-out dates for unmitigated coal, gas, or oil usage. The report scrutinized the plans of the 20 major fossil fuel producers, revealing that they collectively intend to produce approximately 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with restricting the temperature rise to 1.5℃. Furthermore, their production plans are 69% higher than what aligns with the 2℃ target. Notably, none of these 20 countries have committed to reducing coal, oil, and gas production in a manner compatible with limiting the temperature increase to 1.5℃. While 17 of these countries have pledged to achieve net-zero emissions, most continue to endorse, subsidize, support, and plan the expansion of fossil fuel production. As per data from the International Energy Agency, current global oil production stands at almost 102 million barrels per day (bpd). Meeting the 1.5℃ target would necessitate a reduction of approximately 14% in production by 2030 and a substantial 69% decrease by 2050 from existing levels.
